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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.